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Tuesday, September 11, 2012

NFL 2012 Week 2 Power Rankings and Predictions

First of all, 9/11... never forget. Moving on to football, Week 1 was full of upsets... how does it impact the Power Rankings? Let's find out.

Biggest Winner: New York Jets, Washington Redskins (+10)
Biggest Loser: Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

1. New England Patriots (1-0, +1): While some teams faced upset losses in Week 1, the Patriots weren't one of them. They dominated the Titans on both sides of the ball in a 34-13 rout. Their rookie defensive players, Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, combined for a defensive touchdown and the defense dominated the Titans up front, limiting Chris Johnson to just four yards on 11 carries. Offensively, the Patriots didn't take much of a step back from last year. Both Hernandez and Gronkowski had a touchdown grab.

2. Baltimore Ravens (1-0, +4): Joe Flacco looked extremely impressive in the Ravens' 44-13 blowout on Monday night. Finally looking like the elite Quarterback the Ravens hoped he'd be, he went 21/29 for 299 and two touchdowns against a Bengals defense that was supposed to be very good. Defensively, it appears the loss of Terrell Suggs was overblown. Oh, and Ed Reed is a monster... just saying.

3. San Francisco 49ers (1-0, +5): So much for the 49ers taking a step back from their impressive 13-3 run last year. With a win in Lambeau in Week 1, the 49ers proved they can beat anybody. The 49ers have the best defense in the league, I'm convinced. And with his new offensive weapons, Alex Smith is quickly shedding off his bust label. He was poised in the pocket against Green Bay and extremely accurate.

4. Atlanta Falcons (1-0, +1):What did I say last week? Matt Ryan has to absolutely love his WR duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones. The former (along with Matt Ryan) absolutely exploded against the Chiefs last week. Although, the blowout win was not without a cost. News broke after the game that CB Brent Grimes will be out for the season... this is a huge blow for the Falcons' defense, but with an explosive offense, the Falcons are still looking to make 2012 their year.

5. Green Bay Packers (0-1, -4): Losing at home, especially in the season opener, is not something we have come to expect from the Packers. The 49ers came to town and let Alex Smith torch their defense. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers performed well but not well enough against the tough Niners defense. Green Bay should rebound, they are just far too talented on offense to not make a run. Hopefully for them, they use their Week 1 loss as fuel to get better.

6. Chicago Bears (1-0, +3): With a significantly improved offense now that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey is in town, the Bears are fiercely knocking on Green Bay's door for the keys of the NFC North. They'll get their chance to take the reigns from them in their Thursday night matchup in Week 2. Chicago did all the right things against Indianapolis in Week 1. And now with a legitimate receiving corp and improved offensive line, Jay Cutler is looking fantastic.

7. Houston Texans (1-0, +0): It's hard to say just how good the Texans are considering their Week 1 opponent, but they certainly blew out an opponent they should have. Their defense dominated the Dolphins, picking off the rookie Ryan Tannehill three times on Sunday. While Schaub struggled a bit early, he still had a good day, throwing a spectacular fade touchdown pass to Andre Johnson. To add to the Texans' success, Arian Foster looked fit and healthy, running for two touchdowns himself.

8. Dallas Cowboys (1-0, +5): In the history of the tradition that the Super Bowl champs open up the season on Thursday (or in this case, Wednesday... thanks Obama) night, the champs have never lost in the opener. That is, until Dallas shocked the league by walking into MetLife Stadium and upset the Giants. Despite a early interception, Tony Romo looked strong against the Giants, leading Dallas to a spectacular 2nd half victory. Further, their running game was impressive considering how strong the Giants are up-front. It should only be better against other units later in the year.

9. New York Giants (0-1, -5): Its hard to say how the reigning champs fit in Power Rankings as 0-1, but the Giants are a team that should rebound as the season goes on. Their loss wasn't without its share of silver linings. The defensive line is as fierce as ever, Jason Pierre-Paul could be the best pass rusher in the whole damn league. Their offensive started to come together in the second half despite Eli Manning's struggles early. The largest problem is once again the secondary. How is it that the Giants' secondary seems to be depleted every year?

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1, -7): The Steelers offense really disappointed me on Sunday night. Roethlisberger did not look strong, barely completing half of his passes and throwing a costly pick six to Tracy Porter. Defensively, the Steelers were without James Harrison, but allowing Peyton Manning to have their way with them in his first game back after being out of football for a year is unacceptable. We'll see if the Steelers can fix their woes before Week 2.

11. New York Jets (1-0, +10): Holy *** on a *** sandwich with *** on top with a side helping of ***! It looks like everyone and their mother was wrong about the Jets offense, particularly Mark Sanchez, who threw for 266 yards and three touchdown passes in Sunday's 48-28 pounding of the Bills. I guess Rex Ryan really was right when he said that the Jets offense would be just fine. The defense also looked strong, picking off Ryan Fitzpatrick thrice. Now, its only week one, but Sanchez looks to have really improved in the off-season. And if that's the case, the entire league better start worrying about the Jets.

12. Denver Broncos (1-0, +3): Peyton Manning looked good in his first game back from being out for a full season. The future hall-of-famer went for 19/26, 253 yards, and two touchdowns against a tough Steelers defense. Defensively, the Broncos picked up where they left off last year. Free agent acquisition CB Tracy Porter took one of Big Ben's passes to the house (as he did as a Saint in the Super Bowl a few years back).

13. Washington Redskins (1-0, +10): What an debut for Robert Griffin III! Facing the Saints in the Metrodome as his first NFL game, the rookie dominated the Saints defense, looking like the All-Pro Quarterback the Redskins were hoping he was. RG3 went 19/26 for a whopping 320 yards and two touchdowns (one a bomb to Pierre Garcon). He also got 42 yards on the ground on 10 carries. The defense also played well, getting pressure on Brees and not letting him hit 50% completion percentage, and picking him off twice.

14. San Diego Chargers (1-0, +0): The Chargers really needed a win last night without star RB Ryan Mathews and they got it thanks to some sloppy play from the rival Raiders. I think right in the middle of the pack is the right place for them, for now. Although once Ryan Mathews comes back, the Chargers could make a serious run for the AFC West... so long as Mathews can stay healthy. Their biggest competition will be Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

15. Detroit Lions (1-0, -4): Well.. the Lions survived Mathew Stafford's poor day against St. Louis. Part of which was probably due to the incorrect clock stoppage at Ford Field, but still, Stafford was able to redeem himself from three interceptions by throwing a touchdown pass to RB Kevin Smith in the final seconds of the game. Still, this poor play doesn't bode well for a team in such a strong division. They need to get seriously better if they want to make a run for the playoffs.

16. New Orleans Saints (0-1, -4): Despite the Saints defensive players winning their appeal and coming back this week, the Saints appear to still be set back from "Bountygate". The loss of the team's leader, Sean Payton, was apparent in this game. Neither side of the ball started really playing until it was too late. Drew Brees was uncharacteristically inaccurate, and the defense let rookie Robert Griffin III run and pass all over them. Not a good start for the Saints.

17. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0, -7): Talk about ugly wins. Had the Eagles lost to the Browns, I would've fired Andy Reid on the spot. The Eagles offense, namely Michael Vick, struggled heavily against the Browns on Sunday. Vick threw four picks to the Browns, which makes Eagles fans actually hope he gets injured so rookie Nick Foles can come in. They're lucky that the Browns offense is putrid, otherwise they would've never escaped Cleveland with a 17-16 win.

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0, +8): The Bucs defense really impressed me under rookie head coach Greg Schaino. They limited the dynamic Panthers offense led by Cam Newton to only 10 points on Sunday. Which is probably a good thing since the Bucs struggled a bit on offense themselves (although, the rain probably helped both defenses). Doug Martin had a nice debut, he should have a nice career. While the Bucs probably won't seriously compete for the playoffs in a tough NFC, this is a good sign that they are headed in the right direction.

19. Carolina Panthers (0-1, -1): Storms or no storms, Cam Newton's performance against Tampa Bay was not acceptable, and shocking and it looks likely that my prediction of a sophomore slump is legitimate. While Newton still threw for over 300 yards, he also threw two picks and wasn't able to get any big plays on the ground like he was last season. DeAngelo Williams had 6 carries but still wasn't able to outplay Jonathan Stewart, who was on the bench (Williams had -1 rushing yard on his 6 carries). The entire offense was limited to 10 points. The only bright spot was that the defense played relatively well.

20. Buffalo Bills (0-1, -4): The Bills got off to a really bad start against the Jets in the opener. The two pass rushers the Bills courted, Mario Williams and Mark Anderson combined for 1 tackle against the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three balls to the other team and Fred Jackson went down due to injury. The Bills were able to re-group on offense to score 21 points in the second half, but still, the Bills can't feel good about this game. The one bright spot is C.J. Spiller, who looks to have finally emerged as an NFL RB. Once Jackson went down, Spiller went for 169 yards and a touchdown on just 16 carries and also had 25 yards receiving on 2 receptions. Even when Jackson comes back, I think Spiller should play well enough to be the premiere back in Buffalo. They'll certainly need him to be if they want to get back in the playoff picture.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1, +1): The Jags may have lost, but they must've really liked the progression they saw from second-year signal caller Blaine Gabbert. Granted, the Vikings secondary probably isn't the greatest, Gabbert looked completely different, throwing for 260 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. With defensive hero Daryl Smith likely coming back from injury in Week 2 and Maurice Jones-Drew likely to reclaim his starting spot at Runningback, I think the Jaguars will get even better as the season goes on.

22. Seattle Seahawks (0-1, -5): I was fairly disappointed in this team I was high on, dropping to the Cardinals in Week 1. It was a defensive game as I imagined but the Seahawks seemed unable to get to the Quarterback despite the Cardinals' poor offensive line, only getting one sack. Russell Wilson struggled in his first real game as a starter and the Seahawks defense fell apart against Kevin Kolb in the final minutes.

23. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1, -4): Despite their loss, the Chiefs were in it against the Falcons for a long while on Sunday. They really need to work on their defensive issues, though. No matter how good the opponent's offense, giving up 40 points is unacceptable. Jamaal Charles looks like his old self, he isn't showing any signs of rust coming back from his injury last year. The Chiefs need to run him more because he is the most dynamic playmaker on their offense.

24. Cincinnati Bengals (0-1, -4): The Bengals were dominated by their division rival Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. The running game was shut down well by Baltimore's front seven and Andy Dalton struggled because of it. A.J. Green was the bright spot of the offense, and is showing why he's already an elite receiver. The defense was a major disappointment, giving Joe Flacco a career day and giving up two touchdowns to Ray Rice despite using a lot of stacked formations.

25. Minnesota Vikings (1-0, +3): Honestly, I don't know what to do with this team in my Power Rankings. They got the Week 1 win against Jacksonville and Christian Ponder played well (and so did Adrian Peterson coming back from injury) but the defensive secondary got lit up by Blaine Gabbert despite off-season acquisitions in that area. I don't think the Vikings will win a lot of games, but they are better than I gave them credit for in Week 1. Hopefully for them, Ponder continues to improve as the season goes on.

26. St. Louis Rams (0-1, +3): The Rams looked much improved under Jeff Fisher. With a clock error giving the Lions essentially a free timeout, it could be argued the Rams should've beaten them on Sunday. The defense is improved, the secondary picked Mathew Stafford off three times on Sunday. Offensively, Bradford had a good game, getting over a 100 passer rating. I don't think the Rams will win a lot of games but they'll be competitive for the rest of the year.

27. Arizona Cardinals (1-0, +3): The Cardinals offense line actually played fairly well on Sunday. They weren't able to get a running game going, but only gave up one sack to a Seahawks defense looking to improve in that area. The big news is that John Skelton was carted off the field with injury and will probably be down for at least four weeks. This gives Kevin Kolb a chance to take his job back. He certainly made good use of his opportunity in Week 1 - going 6/8 for 66 yards and a game-winning touchdown in the final minutes.

28. Oakland Raiders (0-1, -3): The Raiders played some sloppy football on Monday night against San Diego, making a lot of mistakes leading to a 22-14 loss. Carson Palmer looked better than he did in the preseason but still didn't look stellar. Darren McFadden couldn't get the running game going (although he did catch some passes for decent yardage). Their long-snapper went down to injury, leading to special teams mishaps in the second half. The Raiders don't have a lot of talent due to their lack of draft choices, and it will hurt them in 2012.

29. Indianapolis Colts (0-1, -2): Andrew Luck had some growing pains in his first NFL game against the Bears. He threw three picks in his NFL debut in the 41-21 Sunday loss. Luck should get better as the season goes on (and against softer defenses) but the Colts probably won't be going very far this season with a transitioning defense, rookie Quarterback, and rookie head coach. Colts fans shouldn't worry though... recall, Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions and went 3-13 in his rookie season. Fans will just need to rough out the NFL growing pains.

30. Tennessee Titans (0-1, -6): The Titans were absolutely bamboozled by the Patriots in Week 1. So much for Chris Johnson having a rebound season... good run blocking or no good run blocking, 4 yards on 11 carries is not what an "elite" Runningback does. Second-year signal caller Jake Locker looked okay, throwing for 229 yards, 1 touchdown, and a pick... until going down to injury. And... oh yeah, the defense got torched by Tom Brady in the air and Stevan Ridley on the ground. This team was all-around awful.

31. Cleveland Browns (0-1, +1): The Browns almost pulled off the largest upset of the Week in their 17-16 loss against Philadelphia. Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden was beyond awful in his debut, throwing four picks and "achieving" a passer rating of 5.1 (yeah, that low). He could not capitalize on the Eagles' turnovers. I mean, think about it... if just ONE of those picks were instead a field goal, the Browns would've won this game. The defense looked great, that is going to be their one saving grace this year.

32. Miami Dolphins (0-1, -1): This is going to be a long season. Like the Browns, the only bright spot of the Dolphins is their defense, which played well, all things considered. Only giving up 30 points when Tannehill threw three picks is pretty good. They got pressure on Schaub and had good coverage, leading Schaub to have below 50% completion. Offensively... they were bad. Their one touchdown came on a punt return and while they drove the ball down the field a few times, Miami's lack of a receiving corp made it impossible for Tannehill to throw it in.

Predictions for Week 2

TKN's Week 1 accuracy: 7-9 (43.75%)
Billy's Week 1 accuracy: 7-9 (43.75%)
AFS's* Week 1 accuracy: 10-6 (62.50%)

TKN's Overall 2012 accuracy: 7-9 (43.75%)
Billy's Overall 2012 accuracy: 7-9 (43.75%)
AFS's* Overall 2012 accuracy: 10-6 (62.50%)
*American Football Simulator averages of 2,000 simulations.

The AFS thrashed us in Week 1. I guess with so little to go on, computers fair slightly better at predicting games through formulas than we as humans do. Either way, me and Billy need to seriously catch up... 7-9 is unacceptable as far as predictions go... even in a Week with as many upsets as Week 1.

The Packers can't afford to start 0-2 at home.
Chicago Bears (1-0) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: Green Bay has to rebound here... starting the season off 0-2 at home would not only severely hurt their chances at post-season, but also kill their morale. The Bears on the other hand want to win to get a 2.5 lead over Green Bay for the tough NFC North. I think the Packers will rebound and beat the Bears in a close one, but Chicago's revamped receiving corp should be able to move the ball against the Packers and make this one a high-scoring affair.
Chicago 27, Green Bay 30

Billy:
Chicago 26, Green Bay 21

American  Football Simulator:
Chicago 22, Green Bay 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: The Giants were hoping for an easy rebound win in Week 2, but that doesn't appear to be in the cards with the Bucs' strong performance against Carolina in Week 1. Still, I have to believe the former champs will come in here humble and hungry for a win. The Bucs are a young team and easily the less talented of the two.
Tampa Bay 20, New York G 27

Billy:
Tampa Bay 20, New York G 28

American  Football Simulator:
Tampa Bay 22, New York G 26

Oakland Raiders (0-1) @ Miami Dolphins (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: Both teams played sloppy football in Week 1, but the Raiders are easily the better team. Ryan Tannehill should do better against Oakland than he did against Houston but Oakland still has a stout defense. It will be an ugly game but I give the slight advantage to Oakland.
Oakland 19, Miami 17

Billy:
Oakland 13, Miami 25

American Football Simulator:
Oakland 23, Miami 20

Houston Texans (1-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: Houston's defense played great against Miami, but Jacksonville should be a bit tougher of a challenge. Blaine Gabbert looks like a new man and Reggie Bush isn't as good as Maurice Jones-Drew. Still, the Texans are good on both sides of the ball. I expect the game to be closer than some might think, but still in Houston's favor.
Houston 24, Jacksonville 20

Billy:
Houston 31, Jacksonville 21

American Football Simulator:
Houston 26, Jacksonville 25

The Browns need to slow down Green to win.
Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: This game should be interesting. The Browns want to prove that their defense in Week 1 wasn't a fluke, while the Bengals want to rebound from a tough Monday night loss against another divisional opponent. Granted, I believe both of these teams will be battling it out to avoid being on the bottom of the AFC North this year, but I still love rivalries. I'll pick the Bengals to rebound... Brandon Weeden sucks.
Cleveland 13, Cincinnati 17

Billy:
Cleveland 6, Cincinnati 21

American Football Simulator:
Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 21

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: Both teams were major disappointments in Week 1 despite pre-season hype. I like the Bills to figure things out here at home over the Chiefs, though. The Bills showed some serious promise in the second half against the Jets and the Chiefs defense showed against Atlanta they aren't as good as advertised. Also, unlike Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel really is a bad Quarterback.
Kansas City 24, Buffalo 27

Billy:
Kansas City 17, Buffalo 20

American Football Simulator:
Kansas City 22, Buffalo 24

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
TheKillerNacho: I thought in the pre-season this was going to be a good game but after seeing both teams in Week 1, its hard to say Philadelphia has a chance. If the Eagles offense play like they did against the Browns, this will be a blowout. Either way, I think the Ravens are the clear favorite.
Baltimore 26, Philadelphia 21

Billy:
Baltimore 34, Philadelphia 17

American Football Simulator:
Baltimore 26, Philadelphia 25

One of these Quarterbacks will continue their slump.
New Orleans Saints (0-1) @ Carolina Panthers (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: Which of these NFC South teams will rebound after an upset loss in Week 1? Cam Newton returns home looking to put up big numbers against the same defense that allowed RG3 to put up big numbers in Week 1. Meanwhile, Drew Brees will be hungry for a win and won't repeat his poor performance against Washington. It will be a good close game but at home, I'll give the edge to the Panthers.
New Orleans 27, Carolina 28

Billy:
New Orleans 24, Carolina 27

American Football Simulator:
New Orleans 28, Carolina 24

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) @ New England Patriots (1-0)
TheKillerNacho: Sorry Kevin Kolb, you'll have no such luck proving your worth this week. The Patriots get another easy victory over a poor opponent here.
Arizona 16, New England 33

Billy:
Arizona 20, New England 38

American Football Simulator:
Arizona 21, New England 29

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: Andrew Luck's first home game couldn't be against a better opponent. The Vikings have secondary issues which should allow Luck to put on a good show for the home crowd. The Vikings come to town looking for their second straight win against an AFC South opponent. Christian Ponder will have to deal with better pass-rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis this time, however. I'll take the Colts.
Minnesota 19, Indianapolis 23

Billy:
Minnesota 14, Indianapolis 22

American Football Simulator:
Minnesota 23, Indianapolis 21

RG3 played lights out at NO. Can it continue?
Washington Redskins (1-0) @ St. Louis Rams (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: I want to see if RG3 can continue to play lights out as the season goes on. He now goes to St. Louis to face the squad the picked Mathew Stafford off three times in Week 1. It'll be interesting to see what happens but I'm now a believer in RG3.
Washington 24, St. Louis 17

Billy:
Washington 20, St. Louis 10

American Football Simulator:
Washington 22, St. Louis 23

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: Dallas feels great after their win against the Seahawks and has a full week and a half to prepare for them. Still, one has to wonder if they will sleep on the Seahawks. The Seahawks are a solid team with an excellent homefield advantage and could easily get an upset win here if Tony Romo and the Cowboys aren't ready. Still, I'll go with the better team.
Dallas 26, Seattle 22

Billy:
Dallas 33, Seattle 21

American Football Simulator:
Dallas 24, Seattle 25

New York Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
TheKillerNacho: It'll be interesting to see if the Jets can produce on offense against the Steelers. The Bills defense is widely an unknown factor at this point. Maybe the Bills defense actually just sucks, maybe the Jets success is a fluke. They'll get a challenge with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are trying to avoid going 0-2, so I'm going to pick them to win it at home.
New York J 23, Pittsburgh 24

Billy:
New York J 28, Pittsburgh 35

American Football Simulator:
New York J 19, Pittsburgh 23

If Mathews comes back, it makes SD's offense deadly.
Tennessee Titans (0-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-0)
TheKillerNacho: The Titans were thrashed by the Patriots in Week 1 and with Ryan Mathews likely coming back for the Chargers, this could get ugly. The Titans need to fix their defensive front woes if they want a chance at stopping the run. Offensively, Hasselbeck may start for Locker depending on how serious the injury is. Either way, the Chargers should be able to contain Chris Johnson like they did against Darren McFadden in Week 1. I'll go with the Bolts in a blowout.
Tennessee 17, San Diego 27

Billy:
Tennessee 23, San Diego 24

American Football Simulator:
Tennessee 25, San Diego 27

Detroit Lions (1-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
TheKillerNacho: If Mathew Stafford thought that the Rams had a good defense, wait until he sees the Niners' defense on Sunday night. The Lions barely squeaked out a win against the Rams, while the 49ers beat the Packers in Lambeau decisively. The 49ers should advance to 2-0 here.
Detroit 21, San Francisco 27

Billy:
Detroit 25, San Francisco 29

American Football Simulator:
Detroit 22, San Francisco 27

Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-0)
TheKillerNacho: Coming off a Sunday night win against the Steelers, Peyton Manning now goes to Atlanta on Monday night to attempt to outscore the explosive Falcons. Matt Ryan was flawless in Week 1 against the Chiefs, but the Broncos defense is solid. I think the Falcons win it but Manning will make it close.
Denver 24, Atlanta 27

Billy:
Denver 30, Atlanta 34

American Football Simulator:
Denver 22, Atlanta 26

Question of the Week

Due to posting this question late in Week 1, I'll keep it up for another week (people who vote this week I guess will have the advantage of additional information in Week 1). This year, a league-record five rookies will be starting at Quarterback. This looks like it could be the best draft class since the 2004 class that gave us Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Schaub. Of course, one or more will probably flop ala JP Losman (who was also selected in the 1st round in 2004), but for the most part, I expect at least 3 of these guys to become franchise Quarterbacks for their team for years to come.

The question is... which ones? Instead of asking which rookie QB will have the best career, I'll ask "Which QB(s) will eventually become at least a franchise QB in the NFL?" between Andrew Luck (IND), Robert Griffin III (WAS), Ryan Tannehill (MIA), Brandon Weeden (CLE), and Russell Wilson (SEA). Remember, you can select multiple answers - select all you think will succeed in the NFL!

Vote on the right-hand side of my blog!!

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