Biggest Winner: Cincinnati Bengals (+6)
Biggest Loser: New York Jets (-7)
1. Houston Texans (4-0, +1): I'm finally ready to put this team at #1. They have simply looked great at everything this season. Their passing offense is great, their rushing offense is great, their defense is great against the rush and the pass... although their schedule has been arguably one of the easiest in the NFL thus far, they are beating bad teams as an elite team should: grinding them into the dirt. They should get another grinding against the Jets next Monday night.
2. Atlanta Falcons (4-0, -1): For once, my #1 team didn't lose but it didn't always look pretty for the Falcons, playing at home against the Panthers. I know division games are usually more difficult than other games, but the Falcons defense, which has played so well in the first three weeks, got man-handled by Cam Newton and the Panthers offense, leading nearly to a loss. Luckily, Matt Ryan is still playing out of his mind right now. At this point, a Falcons vs Texans Super Bowl seems likely.
3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1, +0): They may have only beaten the Browns by a few points, but let's look at it in context: They were fighting a division rival (who is extremely hungry for a win), at home, on a short week. Its impressive for the Ravens to even come out with a win in that situation. Joe Flacco continued to impress while the defense did its job. The Ravens get a nice long break and get to play the lowly Chiefs this weekend.
4. San Francisco 49ers (3-1, +0): Man, do the 49ers know how to respond to a loss! The Niners went out to MetLife Stadium, and beat the Jets in every single way. The Jets offense couldn't get ANYTHING going positively against the Niners, while the Niners offense was chugging all day long, beating up a demoralized Jets defense. Their backup Quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, out-rushed the entire Jets offense, for Pete's sake. The Niners deserve their spot in the Top 5.
5. New England Patriots (2-2, +1): After dropping down to a 21-7 deficit in the first half, Bill Bellichick reminds everyone why he's one of the best coaches in the NFL, leading his team to a surge of offense in their 45-point second half. One thing that really sticks out is that this Patriots team finally has a running game to help Tom Brady, led by Stevan Ridley. This team has all the parts to be another championship contender. The real question is, can they put it all together? This team has looked brilliant in some areas this season but their 2-2 record speaks for itself about how they need to keep improving.
6. New York Giants (2-2, -1): The Eagles always seem to have the Giants' number, don't they? A loss is a loss, but if it wasn't for a costly Laurence Tynes field goal miss, the Giants would be 3-1 right now. Granted, it wasn't pretty all around in Philadelphia on Sunday night. The Giants have a lot of work to do. But when they are back against the wall, Tom Coughlin and his Giants rise up to the challenge. I think we'll see a similar surge from the Giants this year.
7. Arizona Cardinals (4-0, +2):
This is one of the most confusing teams in professional football for me. The offensive line is horrid, Kevin Kolb is average at best, and their running game can't get going. However, their very good defense and special teams keeps them in ball games. And they have become extremely adept at winning close ball games. I still don't think their undefeated record will last but at the moment, I have to give them props. Their defense and overall stinginess has led them to a 4-0 record. Here's an interesting stat: The Cardinals have won their last eight home games, but five of those wins have been overtime wins. Wow.
8. Green Bay Packers (2-2, -1): Green Bay won and showed a lot of the things they did last season... their offense was forced to step it up due to an unreliable defense. Of course, a 1-point win over a winless Saints team doesn't exactly speak volumes about how "good" this team is. I still think they are going to make a strong playoff push, but we'll see. Aaron Rodgers looked like he finally may have come back to form... but to be fair, he was playing a New Orleans defense that has looked putrid this season.
9. Chicago Bears (3-1, +3): The Bears had a really complete game on Monday night against Dallas. Jay Cutler was collected in the pocket, having his best game of the year. Meanwhile, the Bears defense picked Tony Romo off five times. Matt Forte is back from injury... and I suspect as he gets more healthy, he'll get more playing time which will help this offense, too. This is a Bears team that has been up and down this season, but overall, I believe its a good team.
10. San Diego Chargers (3-1, +3):
First of all, I'd like to say I hate Norv Turner. It would've been nice to know that Ryan Mathews wouldn't be starting before my fantasy game started. Thanks a lot, Norv. Jerk. Anyway, the Chargers easily defeated the Chiefs in Week 4, quickly getting off to a huge lead due to Chiefs turnovers. They beat an inferior team exactly how they should. They'll get another easy defense in Week 5 against the Saints.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2, -1): The bye week was not kind to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their two most threatening division rivals, the Ravens and Bengals, both won, making them 3-1. Meanwhile, the Steelers are sitting at 1-2. They need to start winning, and fast, if they want to catch up to the division leaders. They play the stingy Eagles at home in Week 5. They need to win that game desperately, or they'll find themselves 1-3.
12. Denver Broncos (2-2, +2): Peyton Manning quickly responded to his recent criticism in Week 4, leading the Broncos to a 37-6 victory over the rival Raiders by throwing for over 330 yards and three touchdowns. Everything went right for the Broncos in this game, and its a strong sign when you win a game you should win by so much. The AFC West will be a close battle between the Broncos and the Chargers, I'm sure of it.
13. Dallas Cowboys (2-2, -5):
Monday night's loss to the Bears was an offensive implosion. Its not like Jason Garrett's offenses have historically been disciplined, either. As he admitted after the game, it was all about turnovers. Specifically Tony Romo's five interceptions. Dallas still has a good defense and a lot of talent offensively. But they need to look past this loss and use it as fuel to cut down the mistakes.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1, +1): The Eagles always seem to have the Giants' number. Still, there were a bunch of positives for the Eagles in their Sunday night win. First and most importantly, Michael Vick did not throw a pick against the Giants, and had a pretty good game passing, passing for 241 yards and a touchdown. Amazing what you can do when you let your star RB, LeSean McCoy, actually run the football. Secondly, the Eagles defense continues to impress, playing well against a good Giants offense. They're lucky to be 3-1 at this point, but if they continue to improve like they showed on Sunday night, could be a serious contender.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1, +6): The Bengals are a team I think has addressed their early season problems. Going to Jacksonville and beating the Jaguars really isn't as easy as some would have you believe, especially beating them 27-10. After an early poor pick, Andy Dalton bounced back with the help of A.J. Greene to torch the Jacksonville defense. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense stepped up after allowing huge passing games in the first three games, limiting Blaine Gabbert to a measly 186 yards. Most impressively, however, is the fact they held Maurice Jones-Drew to only 38 rushing yards on the day.
16. Minnesota Vikings (3-1, +4):
You know... I'm starting to believe in this team. The Vikings are a
surprising team this year, winning back to back games against strong
opponents. Beating the 49ers then beating the Lions at Ford Field is
impressive. Their defense is playing well, even against the pass.
Offensively, Christian Ponder is making strides and Adrian Peterson is
still Adrian Peterson. And of course, on Special teams, the Vikings have
one of the most dynamic play-makers in the game in Percy Harvin. They
still have a bit to go before I mark them as serious contenders, but I
admit I was wrong about them at the beginning of the season. 
17. Seattle Seahawks (2-2, -6):
Russell Wilson has struggled in these first four weeks, which is why I really believed they made the wrong choice in starting him over Matt Flynn. It really highlights how Pre-season highlights certain players over others. Wilson wasn't ready to start in the NFL. Some day he can be a very good Quarterback, but that day isn't now. The Seahawks aren't dead after their 13-19 loss against the rival Rams, but their offense needs to get better and help their defense, which is playing very well right now.
18. Buffalo Bills (2-2, +1):
The largest problem with this team is, in my opinion, Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is a guy who can make plays but he just isn't an NFL talent, and makes too many costly mistakes. This Bills team is very good, shown by their ability to limit the Patriots to just 7 points in the first half. But their ability to implode, like they did in the 2nd half and in Week 1 against the Jets, will cost this team.
19. Washington Redskins (2-2, +5):
After losing another two players, including Free Safety starter Brandon Meriweather to a stupid practice incident prior to Sunday's game against the Bucs, the Redskins defense took a serious stand, playing very well in their 24-22 win over Tampa Bay. They showed that they would not let key injuries stop them. Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III is still playing very well this season and is a dynamic playmaker.
20. Detroit Lions (1-3, -3): This team has seriously declined from its 10-6 form a year ago. Putting up only 13 points against a Vikings secondary that was supposed to be pretty poor is unacceptable, but not nearly as unacceptable as losing to the pitiful Titans. I'm not even sure why I still have them at #20. Perhaps it is because I think they can figure some things out during their bye week. Matthew Stafford needs to get back on track for this team to succeed.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3, -5): This Buccaneers team is a solid squad but lacks a certain amount of star-power. Their defense is solid and keeps them in games and their offense is solid and can make plays but they can't seem to pull it all together and get wins. After three straight NFC East losses, the Buccaneers get a much-needed break with their bye. Afterwards, they are treated to games against two teams they could beat: Kansas City, then New Orleans.
22. Carolina Panthers (1-3, +0):
The Panthers looked to have addressed their problems from Week 3 against the Giants and came out strong against the division rival Falcons in their home dome. For that reason, you have to really feel bad for Cam Newton, who played so well in that game, to come up with a loss. Regardless, the Panthers played very well against a very good team. They could easily bounce back and get back into wildcard contention.
23. St. Louis Rams (2-2, +4): Jeff Fisher's Rams returned to good solid defensive and offensive play in their 19-13 win against the Seahawks. I'm going to take this time to give props to two guys who have really been helping the Rams this year. First of all, Danny Amendola, who was injured all of last season, has really come in and helped Sam Bradford tremendously. The guy is on pace for over 120 receptions, he's really Wes Welker 2.0. Secondly, rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein has been amazing, nailing four field goals (including 58 and 60 yarders) against the Seahawks.
24. New Orleans Saints (0-4, +1):
Another week, another loss for the Saints (Same line I used last week). At least in this game, the Saints looked somewhat like they did last year. Drew Brees had a monster game, throwing for nearly 450 yards and three touchdowns. Still, their defense is their key problem, as they continue to get torched by both the pass and the rush. And that couldn't be more evident than in their 27-28 loss to the Packers. Say what you want about Gregg Williams' bounty system... its hard to say it wasn't an effective "motivator". Steve Spagnuolo's defense is severely struggling. 
25. New York Jets (2-2, -7): The Jets are NOT a good football team. Think about it. Is there even a single thing this team can do well? They can't run the football. They can't pass the football. They can't stop the run. They can't even defend the pass anymore since Darrelle Revis went out to injury. With Santonio Holmes now likely to miss several games now due to an injury sustained in their 34-0 ass-kicking (in the calm words from Rex Ryan) from the 49ers, the Jets look like they could be on their way to a Top 5 pick.
26. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3, -3): Jamaal Charles is back. Despite two fumbles early, he was able to bounce back to lead the team in total yards. He remains the Chiefs' best chance to score points on offense. Too bad the Chiefs suck in most other categories. The defense which was supposed to be talented has fallen somehow to a bottom-5 unit. Meanwhile, Matt Cassel has sucked something horribly this year, throwing 7 interceptions in four games. They'll win some games if Jamaal Charles can stay healthy but they won't sniff playoff contention.
27. Miami Dolphins (1-3, +1): The song that comes to mind when I think about this team is "Why do you build me up baby just to let me down". I expected a huge dominant loss to the Cardinals in Week 5, but for awhile, the Dolphins looked to be in complete control, leading 13-0 at the half. Too bad it all fell apart again for an overtime loss. The positive of this game is that Ryan Tannehill looked poised in the pocket, throwing for an astonishing 431 yards (253 to Brian Hartline) against a good Cardinals defense. If Tannehill continues to develop at this rate, the Dolphins finally have their successor to Marino. Also, Cam Wake had four sacks against the Cardinals, the man is a beast.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3, -2): Just as I was beginning to like this team, they had to do something like losing 27-10 at home to the Bengals to make me question them again. Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to just 2.9 yards per carry and that ineptitude quickly spread to the rest of the team. It was a disappointing outing for a team that found some confidence in their win against the Colts in the previous week. They face an even better defense in the Bears in Week 5.
29. Indianapolis Colts (1-2, +1):
Since the Colts were on a bye this week, I'm going to use this space to talk about Chuck Pagano. For those who haven't heard, Pagano was diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia over the weekend. Please keep him and his family in your thoughts and prayers. How this affects the Colts is unknown. Usually when something like this happens, the team can react in one of two ways: a) Use it as motivation to play really well or b) Collapse due to the loss of their leadership. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will step up as interim head coach until Pagano can return.
30. Oakland Raiders (1-3, -1): As I suspected, the Raiders are not a good football team despite their win against the Steelers in Week 3. Carson Palmer looked lost against the Broncos defense in Week 4, leading the Raiders to a mere 6 points. They need to establish Darren McFadden and the running game in order to have a chance offensively, but they have had trouble doing so. To make matters worse, their defense has been bad this year too. The Raiders are talent-deprived and are in need of the Top 5 pick they are going to inevitably get.
31. Tennessee Titans (1-3, +0): The Titans come off their first win to once again get demolished. So far, this team has had one over-time win and three losses in which they were destroyed. To add injury to insult, Jake Locker went down to injury in the first half against Houston and Kenny Britt didn't play due to injury complications. The only slight positive note that can be found in their 38-14 loss against the Texans is that somehow Chris Johnson was able to finally have a good game, as he rushed for 141 yards on 25 carries. Still, they have a lot more problems than their diva Runningback. In fact, its hard to really put your finger on a strength of this team.
32. Cleveland Browns (0-4, +0): They may have played the Ravens close, but the Browns are still the worst team in the NFL. As I mentioned in the Ravens section, its not really surprising that a division rival can play well on a short week in that situation. The Browns don't really have many strengths except for Trent Richardson. But opposing defensive coordinators are stacking the box because they don't fear Brandon Weeden. If they don't get some serious success in the passing game soon, the Browns will be lucky to win a game.Predictions for Week 2
TKN's last week accuracy: 9-6 (60.00%)
Billy's last week accuracy: 7-8 (46.67%)
AFS's* last week accuracy: 10-5 (66.67%)
TKN's Overall 2012 accuracy: 35-28 (55.56%)
Billy's Overall 2012 accuracy: 33-30 (52.38%)
AFS's* Overall 2012 accuracy: 40-23 (63.49%)
*American Football Simulator averages of 2,000 simulations.
Billy had a really tough week last week, going 7-8, trying to predict several upsets that didn't occur (he thought the Jets would beat the Niners... lol). Meanwhile, the AFS has the best week again, going 10-5 and increasing its lead over me to 5 games. In a sense, I'm happy that my creation is proving accurate this year. But in another I don't want to get beaten by some heartless machine!
 |
| The Cards can't afford to be complacent after nearly losing to MIA. |
TheKillerNacho: Thursday night games rarely go the way some expect, mainly due to the short week. And being that this is another division game, this game is no exception. The Rams just took care of the Seahawks on the same field and are hungry to get the first victory over their division rivals. If the Cardinals come in complacent, they open the doors to a loss. In fact, I'm going to pick the upset here with the Rams over the Cardinals on Thursday night football.
Arizona 16, St. Louis 19
Billy:
Arizona 31, St. Louis 27
American Football Simulator:
Arizona 22, St. Louis 24
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)
TheKillerNacho: This is as close as a "must-win" game gets in Week 5 for the Steelers. Coming off the bye week, they are 1-2 with two division rivals sitting at 3-1; they can't afford to drop to 1-3 here against the Eagles. With a full week to prepare for Michael Vick and a struggling Eagles offense, I think the Steelers will get back on track with a win in the battle of Pennsylvania.
Philadelphia 17, Pittsburgh 24
Billy:
Philadelphia 26, Pittsburgh 37
American Football Simulator:
Philadelphia 23, Pittsburgh 25
Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
TheKillerNacho: The Packers should not overlook a Colts team that should come out fired up to play for their coach Chuck Pagano, who was recently diagnosed with leukemia. Still, the Packers are obviously a better team than the Colts. Andrew Luck should have a good game against a Packers defense that gave up nearly 450 passing yards to Drew Brees last week but Aaron Rodgers should have a better week against a Colts defense that couldn't stop the pass at all in the first three weeks.
Green Bay 28, Indianapolis 24
Billy:
Green Bay 41, Indianapolis 17
American Football Simulator:
Green Bay 28, Indianapolis 19
Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ New York Giants (2-2)
TheKillerNacho: The Giants have lost two division games but always seem to have an easy rebound game after those losses, which is lucky for them. They should have no trouble defeating the Browns at home.
Cleveland 12, New York G 23
Billy:
Cleveland 27, New York G 20
American Football Simulator:
Cleveland 19, New York G 24
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| Matt Ryan is off to the best start of his career. |
TheKillerNacho: Eventually, one has to expect the Redskins' injuries on defense will come back to haunt them. And it will probably happen here against a dynamic offense of the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons defense gave up a good game to Cam Newton last week so Robert Griffin III should be able to find similar success but I would be shocked for Matt Ryan not to out-perform Griffin against a depleted Redskins defense.
Atlanta 27, Washington 23
Billy:
Atlanta 29, Washington 22
American Football Simulator:
Atlanta 25, Washington 23
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
TheKillerNacho: Ryan Tannehill has a very good chance at another good game against the Bengals pass defense, but Reggie Bush might have some issues against a Bengals defense that has been good against the run. Offensively, the Bengals should score enough points to outscore the Dolphins but this game will probably be closer than some might expect.
Miami 23, Cincinnati 24
Billy:
Miami 13, Cincinnati 23
American Football Simulator:
Miami 20, Cincinnati 22
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
TheKillerNacho: The Chiefs are in shambles, and the Ravens have had a nice long week following a Thursday night win against Cleveland. Ray Rice and Joe Flacco should equally dominate a Chiefs defense struggling to stop everyone so far this season. Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles faces a very stingy Baltimore defense and Matt Cassel should continue to struggle.
Baltimore 26, Kansas City 20
Billy:
Baltimore 24, Kansas City 20
American Football Simulator:
Baltimore 26, Kansas City 21
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3)
TheKillerNacho: The Seahawks get to travel to another team with a poor record that has talent and is hungry for a win here in Week 5 against the Panthers. The good news for Russell Wilson is that the Panthers defense is not nearly as good as the Rams'. This should be a somewhat close game but I'm going to give the nod to the home team.
Seattle 20, Carolina 21
Billy:
Seattle 28, Carolina 24
American Football Simulator:
Seattle 24, Carolina 23
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| The Bears have arguably the best defense in football. |
TheKillerNacho: If the Jaguars thought the Bengals defense was tough, wait until they see the Bears defense, which has dominated opponents for four weeks straight (even in their loss to the Packers, the defense did play very well). Maurice Jones-Drew won't have an easy time running here and the Bears are coming off a 5-interception performance against Tony Romo. I doubt Blaine Gabbert will do much better.
Chicago 26, Jacksonville 14
Billy:
Chicago 35, Jacksonville 10
American Football Simulator:
Chicago 24, Jacksonville 22
Denver Broncos (2-2) @ New England Patriots (2-2)
TheKillerNacho: I really missed the seemingly-annual Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady game last year. This year, Peyton's team may be different, but the matchup should be just as good. Both teams have had some weaknesses exposed this season, evidenced by their 2-2 records. Still, the Patriots are arguably the more complete team and at home, I'll take the Patriots.
Denver 24, New England 27
Billy:
Denver 23, New England 33
American Football Simulator:
Denver 21, New England 25
Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
TheKillerNacho: Buffalo must be demoralized after leading 21-7 to the Patriots at half only to lose 28-52. Bad goes to worse when they are forced to travel west to play the San Francisco 49ers, who are hot off a 36-0 win over the Jets. The 49ers could ride momentum alone to beat the Bills, but honestly, they don't have to; the 49ers are the better team anyway.
Buffalo 19, San Francisco 27
Billy:
Buffalo 18, San Francisco 40
American Football Simulator:
Buffalo 21, San Francisco 27
Tennessee Titans (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-1)
TheKillerNacho: The Vikings, despite everyone doubting them, has a very good chance at being an astonishing 4-1 when Week 5 is said and done. The Titans are an awful defensive team, both Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson should be in store to have a very good game. While the Vikings looked to have a defensive weakness against the pass early in the year, they have gotten better which means Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck (whoever starts) shouldn't have an easy day. And don't count on Chris Johnson having a good performance against the Vikings at home.
Tennessee 17, Minnesota 24
Billy:
Tennessee 17, Minnesota 14
American Football Simulator:
Tennessee 23, Minnesota 24
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| When 450 passing yards isn't good enough... |
TheKillerNacho: This is a huge trap game for the Chargers. The Saints may be 0-4, but are coming off their best game of the season against Green Bay, a game they could have easily won. Playing at home on Sunday night, they are more hungry now for a win then ever. The Chargers should have no issue moving the ball against a poor Saints defense (no matter who starts at Runningback) but they have to play well defensively to limit Drew Brees to win this one. I'm going San Diego but my gut tells me this is the week the Saints win one.
San Diego 28, New Orleans 27
Billy:
San Diego 24, New Orleans 31
American Football Simulator:
San Diego 24, New Orleans 28
Houston Texans (4-0) @ New York Jets (2-2)
TheKillerNacho: I don't think I really have to write anything but I'll say this... I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets get shut out two weeks in a row.
Houston 30, New York J 10
Billy:
Houston 30, New York J 14
American Football Simulator:
Houston 24, New York J 22
Question of the Week
Last week, I asked "For better or worse, which NFL team's performance has been most shocking so far?" between the New Orleans Saints (0-3), New England Patriots (1-2), Green Bay Packers (1-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2), Arizona Cardinals (3-0), or the Minnesota Vikings (2-1)? While there are a lot of good answers there, the New Orleans Saints, now 0-4, led the poll with 40%. Second place went to the Cardinals, now 4-0, with 30%. The Packers, Steelers, and Vikings all tied third with 10% each.
This season has been a very good season for sophomore Quarterbacks. Blaine Gabbert has had a great turnaround from last season, holding a 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2012. Christian Ponder has yet to throw a pick, has completed nearly 70% of his passes, and has led the Vikings to a 3-1 record. Cam Newton is having another good year, already throwing for over 1000 yards and scoring 7 total touchdowns. Finally, Jake Locker has been the silver lining of the Titans storm cloud, earning a 90.2 season Quarterback rating despite having very little help offensively.
This week's question is, "In the first four games of the season, which sophomore starting Quarterback has been most impressive?" between Blaine Gabbert (JAC), Christian Ponder (MIN), Cam Newton (CAR) and Jake Locker (TEN). Try to think about the context before answering, look at their statistics and watch some plays before voting. Its easy to eliminate Locker & Gabbert because they are on poor teams but they have both played really, really well despite not much help. Despite this, I'm going to go with Christian Ponder (not Cam Newton!) because I am really impressed with the kid. He has not thrown a pick yet and has completed nearly 70% of his passes. He has proven to be an asset, not an obstacle for his team all year long. Newton is a playmaker but is prone to mistakes this year with his 5 interceptions and 4 fumbles.
Vote on the right-hand side of my blog!!
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