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Welcome to the blog of The Killer Nacho, known to most mortals as Timothy J. Sharpe, a Computer Science graduate of Messiah College and currently a Systems Analyst for Sunoco Logistics. Within this tome of pages, one will find my innermost thoughts about various things concerning things that I enjoy. These subjects include, but are not limited to, roleplaying, gaming, American Football (the NFL), things to do with computers, philosophy, movies that are awesome, TV shows that are awesome, my own writings and creative works, and dangerous Mexican snacks.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

NFL Week 14 2011 Power Rankings & Predictions

Sorry for the abridged post here, this week. Been busy with school recently, so I'm going to keep it short & sweet. Seems like my top teams continues to impress - very few changes in the Top 10!

Biggest Winner: New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers (+4)
Biggest Loser: Oakland Raiders (-6)

1. Green Bay Packers (12-0, +0): Packers keep rolling under Aaron Rodgers. The defense kept the Giant in it, though, which is a minor concern.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-3, +0): If its any team that can stop the Packers from going 19-0, its Drew Brees and the Saints.

3. Baltimore Ravens (9-3, +0): Ray Rice had over 200 yards rushing against the Browns in Week 13. Wow.

4. San Francisco 49ers (10-2, +0): Its only the Rams, but the 49ers defense continues to impress with a shutout. 26-0 is absolute domination, but Frank Gore's day was disappointing.

5. New England Patriots (9-3, +0): Don't let the final score fool you ... the Patriots dominated this game. Rob Gronkowski fantasy owners did not likely lose this week, as the Tight End grabbed 3 touchdown passes.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3, +0): Pittsburgh dominated Cincinnati... a good sign for a team that played so pitifully against the Chiefs.

7. Houston Texans (9-3, +4): I was a fool to doubt this team! Yates actually played solid... but this Texans team has a top running game and defense. They can ride these two things to the playoffs.

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-5, -1): They probably should've ran the ball more with Michael Turner against Houston. Matt Ryan was ineffective against the Texans secondary. Still, they are a favorite in my eyes for an NFC wildcard.

9. New York Giants (6-6, +4): A loss is a loss, but there is still fight in this team. They may have a chance now that their schedule gets a little easier.

10. Detroit Lions (7-5, -1): The Lions' loss of Ndamukong Suh is obvious. Their offense is also obviously better with Kevin Smith in the lineup, but can he stay healthy?

11. Tennessee Titans (7-5, +4): Welcome back, Chris Johnson. You couldn't have chosen a better time to stop sucking.

12. Dallas Cowboys (7-5, -4): A loss to the Cardinals is inexcusable, they fumbled an easy opportunity to take a commanding lead of the NFC East.

13. New York Jets (7-5, +1): A win is a win. The AFC wildcard race is open at this point, but the Jets are probably a favorite. Then again, they really have no room for error.

14. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5, -2): How will this young team rebound after a blowout loss to the Steelers? They still have an excellent chance at a wildcard at 7-5.

15. Denver Broncos (7-5, +2): Tim Tebow "just wins". A strong running game & defense helps too. I actually believe the Broncos will win the division at this point.

16. Oakland Raiders (7-5, -6): The Raiders just didn't match up well against Miami. I believe they will rebound, but it will be hard with Darren McFadden having another setback.

17. San Diego Chargers (5-7, +2): A blowout win of the crappy Jaguars is not going to convince me that this team doesn't suck. They are still two games behind the Raiders and the Broncos, and I doubt they'll be able to catch up with only four games to go.

18. Chicago Bears (7-5, -2): The Bears can't catch a break with Matt Forte now going down to injury (high ankle sprain). Such a shame, the Bears were looking to be a very good team this year but with Cutler and Forte out, they will miss the playoffs.

19. Miami Dolphins (4-8, +2): With the coaching staff trying to save their jobs, the Dolphins are playing very good football right now. This is one team that no one wants to play right now.

20. Carolina Panthers (4-8, +4): Cam Newton and the Panthers offense exploded last Sunday against the Bucs. The defense was also able to stuff LeGarrette Blount with no threat from backup Quarterback Josh Johnson in the passing game.

21. Buffalo Bills (5-7, +2): C.J. Spiller is starting to show up with the loss of Fred Jackson, but its just too little too late. There's always next year... Right?

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8, -4): Very disappointing season for a team with such high expectations. This is now 6 straight losses, you can now start including Raheem Morris in lists of coaches on the hot seat.

23. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8, -3): The Eagles really did reach an all-time low by dropping to the crappy Seahawks. Vince Young may have completely blown his opportunity to start somewhere next year- he was dreadful. Poor LeSean McCoy, he is playing at an elite level but the defense and passing game just sucks.

24. Washington Redskins (4-8, -2): Sexy Rexy was due for another unsexy performance. The Redskins were finally smart and stuck to Roy Helu at Runningback, but it wasn't enough to beat the Jets.

25. Arizona Cardinals (5-7, +0): I'm still not exactly sure how they did not, but the Cardinals actually stopped the Cowboys offense pretty well. They may continue their roll as a spoiler this season now that Kevin Kolb is healthy.

26. Seattle Seahawks (5-7, +2): Marshawn Lynch has been a late-season monster. If they weren't already virtually out of playoff contention, they would have a chance.

27. Minnesota Vikings (2-10, +0): Ponder continues to struggle, which is disappointing since his two picks was the difference in this game. The defense played great, and Percy Harvin is one of the most talented players in football. They hope to get Adrian Peterson before the end of the season... and they'll need him if they want to win another game.

28. Cleveland Browns (4-8, -2): The Browns were completely unable to stop the Ravens' running game. Despite another great game by Joe Haden & the Browns pass defense, the run defense surrendered over 200 yards rushing to Ray Rice alone.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (5-7, +0): They won, but with Orton now out with injury, they are forced to stick with Palko (unless they call McNabb??). They won't win many games with only being able to score 10 points. He has led the Chiefs to one touchdown in three games.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9, +1): It's really hard to decide who is worse between the Rams and the Jaguars, but I'll give the Jaguars the nod since Maurice Jones-Drew is a monster and the defense is solid.

31. St. Louis Rams (2-10, -1): Being shut out is not a good thing in the NFL. The only shred of something positive is the fact they were able to stop Frank Gore for the most part. I doubt that will allow Spags to keep his head coaching gig, however.

32. Indianapolis Colts (0-12, +0): They played New England better than expected... but that still doesn't make me think they should be favored in any game this season. Honestly, this team is worse than the 0-16 Lions team, and they could very well match that feat.

Predictions for Next Week

TKN's accuracy, Last week: 11-5 (68.75%)
Billy's accuracy, Last week: 11-5 (68.75%)
AFS's* accuracy, Last week: 9-7 (56.25%)

TKN's Overall 2011 accuracy: 125-67 (65.10%)
Billy's Overall 2011 accuracy: 127-65 (66.15%)
AFS's* Overall 2011 accuracy: 126-66 (65.62%)
*American Football Simulator averages of 2,000 simulations.

This competition is getting pretty close with the Simulator having an off week at 9-7!

Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
TheKillerNacho: It's really funny how NFL Network tries to sell these Thursday Night football games. The Browns have as much chance as derailing the Steelers as I do finding a $100 dollar bill on the ground.
Cleveland 12, Pittsburgh 27

Billy:
Cleveland 12, Pittsburgh 19

American Football Simulator:
Cleveland 18, Pittsburgh 24

Jones-Drew is the one thing JAC has going for them.
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
TheKillerNacho: Jacksonville was able to help San Diego snap their losing streak last week, why not Tampa Bay's this week?
Tampa Bay 20, Jacksonville 17

Billy:
Tampa Bay 13, Jacksonville 19

American Football Simulator:
Tampa Bay 24, Jacksonville 23

Kansas City (5-7) @ New York J (7-5)
TheKillerNacho: This will be a defensive battle, but in no way do I see Tyler Palko leading the Chiefs to victory against the Jets secondary.
Kansas City 3, New York J 17

Billy:
Kansas City 13, New York G 28

American Football Simulator:
Kansas City 16, New York J 25

Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)TheKillerNacho: The Bengals desperately need to rebound, but it won't be easy against a Texans team motivated to get their first playoff birth. Give me the Texans, here.
Houston 23, Cincinnati 20

Billy:
Houston 20, Cincinnati 17

American Football Simulator:
Houston 24, Cincinnati 23

New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
TheKillerNacho: Tom Brady or Rex Grossman... hmmm...
New England 26, Washington 21

Billy:
New England 37, Washington 17

American Football Simulator:
New England 23, Washington 20

Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
TheKillerNacho: Atlanta needs to rebound here, but it won't be easy against the hot Cam Newton. Ultimately, I think they will, however. Their playoff hopes are on the line.
Atlanta 27, Carolina 26

Billy:
Atlanta 27, Carolina 25

American Football Simulator:
Atlanta 27, Carolina 24

Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
TheKillerNacho: Look for my Miami Dolphins to stick the final nail the the Eagles' coffin, even with Michael Vick likely returning..
Philadelphia 23, Miami 27

Billy:
Philadelphia 35, Miami 20

American Football Simulator:
Philadelphia 27, Miami 24

New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
TheKillerNacho: One can easily argue that the Titans need this win more, but I just don't see Drew Brees losing.
New Orleans 28, Tennessee 23

Billy:
New Orleans 31, Tennessee 30

American Football Simulator:
New Orleans 26, Tennessee 24

Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
TheKillerNacho: Ray Rice has a serious chance of breaking 200 yards rushing in two straight games...
Indianapolis 10, Baltimore 23

Billy:
Indianapolis 16, Baltimore 38

American Football Simulator:
Indianapolis 19,  Baltimore 30

Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
TheKillerNacho: The season is on the line here for Detroit from here on out. I think Matthew Stafford will lead the Lions to a much-needed win against the Vikings' pitiful secondary.
Minnesota 24, Detroit 27

Billy:
Minnesota 24, Detroit 34

American Football Simulator:
Minnesota 18, Detroit 22

Caleb Hanie needs a win, but has been inept thus far.
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
TheKillerNacho: I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Denver Broncos have a Quarterback advantage in this game. Not to mention, they Broncos still have their running game.
Chicago 10, Denver 13

Billy:
Chicago 18, Denver 23

American Football Simulator:
Chicago 23, Denver 21

San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
TheKillerNacho: Doubt the Cards make two upsets in a row. San Francisco is just as hot, if not more, coming off their shut out victory of the Rams.
San Francisco 24, Arizona 17

Billy:
San Francisco 26, Arizona 16

American Football Simulator:
San Francisco 25, Arizona 21

Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
TheKillerNacho: This is a game of two teams that looked earlier in the season to be post-season favorites, only to really fall off later in the season. Now, both teams face a must-win situation to keep their playoff dreams alive. I like San Diego.
Buffalo 17, San Diego 26

Billy:
Buffalo 21, San Diego 27

American Football Simulator:
Buffalo 22, San Diego 28

Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
TheKillerNacho: I don't see the Raiders can bounce back on the road against the best team in football. Aaron Rodgers will have fun lighting up a pretty bad Oakland secondary.
Oakland 26, Green Bay 30

Billy:
Oakland 28, Green Bay 41

American Football Simulator:
Oakland 18, Green Bay 28

New York G (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
TheKillerNacho: Dallas has an opportunity to virtually clinch the division here, but if the Giants win, it puts Dallas in a bad position. This game has heavy playoff implications since I believe the winner will win the NFC East. I'll side with the Cowboys at home, but this wild matchup could go either way.
New York G 27, Dallas 30

Billy:
New York G 33, Dallas 30

American Football Simulator:
New York G 25, Dallas 24

St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (4-8)
TheKillerNacho: For your own health, you may want to make other plans for Monday night. This game is not one you'll want to watch.
St. Louis 10, Seattle 20

Billy:
St. Louis 12, Seattle 29

American Football Simulator:
St. Louis 22, Seattle 23

Question of the Week

Last week, I asked my readers Which head coaches are most likely going to be fired sometime before next season? between Andy Reid, Tony Sparano, Norv Turner, Jim Caldwell, Todd Haley, Steve Sagnuolo, or Other (Please comment). All voters seemed to agree that Norv Turner was done. In fact, a report came out recently saying Norv would be gone at season's end. Then again, he blew out the Jags last Sunday, so who knows. Other "winners" was Andy Ried (50% of voters) and Steve Spagnuolo (50%). Caldwell and Haley had 33%, and Sparano (much to my surprise) had only 16%.

Its a very tight race in the playoffs this year. With the AFC playoff picture crystallizing, it seems that one wildcard spot will go to either Pittsburgh or Baltimore (whichever does not win the division). The other wildcard spot currently has only a few teams really vying for it. Which of the following teams is most likely to win the 6th seed of the AFC? between the Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, or New York Jets? Considering I'm not convinced the Front Office has already given Caldwell a pass for Sucking for Luck, I'm thinking it's a tough call between Reid and Turner. Then again, Todd Haley was rumored to be almost fired during their bye week...

Vote on the right-hand side of my blog!

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